ATLANTIC & PACIFIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY & PREDICTIONS 2014
Fay becomes a Category 1 Hurricane October 12 at 2100 UTC
Tropical
Depression Seven forming on October 10 at 1445 UTC
Personal Insights
Observations
Bermudians are saying, "Fay, Fay go away, don't come by with rain today"
Tropical Storm Fay on her way towards Bermuda - October 11 at 1845 UTC
Keeping in line with the way events are playing out this season in the Atlantic, when Depression Seven formed I was wondering, "just how strong will it get?" The activity to date has been below average, for by the first week of October the average is for nine named systems to have formed, and Fay becomes only the sixth named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season on October 10. The National Hurricane Center was anticipating for Fay to pass east of Bermuda. However, I was sensing that she was planning on visiting Bermuda. As you can see from the graphs, even six hours before Fay crosses over the island the NHC is still expecting Fay to brush by on the east-side. Just before 0500 hrs EDT (0900 UTC) on October 12 the centre of Fay moves over the subtropical island. Twelve hours after passing over Bermuda Fay becomes the fifth hurricane of the North Atlantic this year which is in line with the average for number of hurricanes to have formed in the basin this far into the season.
At 15:00 UTC on October 10, the NHC concluded using satellite imagery that an area of low pressure north of the Leeward Islands had organized into a subtropical depression. Tracking to the northwest, the system steadily intensified, intensifying into a subtropical storm later that day based on aircraft reconnaissance; continued recon data indicated that Fay was much stronger and intensifying faster than previously estimated.
On October 11, the subtropical system began to transition into a tropical cyclone and completed this transition by 06:00 UTC that day. The persistence of strong wind shear slowed further development, and Fay eventually passed over Bermuda on October 12 with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). A weather station on the island documented gusts peaking at 82 mph (132 km/h) during the storm's passage, with widespread power outages reported. from Wikipedia, the free encylopedia
Fay brushes past Bermuda on October 12 before becoming a hurricane.
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