ATLANTIC & PACIFIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY & PREDICTIONS 2014
Outlook for the 2014 Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season
The amount of hurricane activity in the basin varies from year to year. For the eastern North Pacific region, east of 140 West Longitude, the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages include 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15 and officially ends November 30. Eastern Pacific hurricanes seldom have any impact on the U.S. but can hit the west coast of Mexico as well as parts of Central America.
According to a report from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center the chance of an El Niño reemerging this year has increased. And, if the models from the report play out, that could mean fewer named storms in the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season and potential drought relief for parts of California later this year. An El Niño cycle can occur every two to seven years, when weaker trade winds allow warmer water around the equator in the far eastern Pacific Ocean to emerge. That warmer water changes wind patterns and alters storm cycles around the globe. During El Niño seasons, hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific tends to be more active than usual. Check the Blog section to see a video on El Niño formation.
That being said, my personal feeling on El Niño strengthening this year is that there are too many strong wind patterns around which could inhibit a stronger formation due to their cooling effect on surface waters but the struggle for supremacy between cold and warm fronts may mean more storms for the western portions of North America accompanied by periods of drought and severe thunderstorms with flash flooding.
April 10 - The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) announced their outlook calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
May 22 - NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a near-normal or above-normal hurricane activity season. Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes.