ATLANTIC & PACIFIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY & PREDICTIONS 2014
Outlook for the 2014 North Atlantic
Tropical Cyclone Season
For the North Atlantic the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal average consists of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane activity fluctuates from year to year and here is an outlook from various sources for 2014.
December 13, 2013 - The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium issued their first outlook on seasonal hurricane activity for the 2014 Atlantic season. The organization called for a near-normal activity year, with 14 (±4) tropical storms, 6 (±3) hurricanes and 3 (±2) major hurricanes. The basis for such included slightly stronger than normal trade winds and slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic.
March 11, 2014 - New predictions from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are leaning to an active El Nino event this hurricane season. These predictions are saying there is a 50/50 chance of this taking place. Should El Nino occur, this will allow the Atlantic Hurricanes/Tropical Storms to steer away from land. That being said, El Nino may not happen. This same prediction was made in 2012 and El Nino failed to appear. All eyes still need to remain on any tropical activity as this El Nino event would not 100 percent assure us a "safe" Atlantic hurricane season.
March 24, 2014 - Weather Services International (WSI), a subsidiary company of The Weather Channel, issued their first Atlantic outlook, calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Two factors, including cooler-than-average waters in the eastern Atlantic and the likelihood of an El Niño, were expected to negate high seasonal activity.
April 7, 2014 - TSR issued their second extended-range forecast for the North Atlantic season, lowering the predicted numbers to 12 (±4) named storms, 5 (±3) hurricanes and 2 (±2) major hurricanes.
April 10, 2014 - Colorado State University (CSU) issued their first outlook for the year, predicting activity below the 1981–2010 average. Citing a likely El Niño of at least moderate intensity and cooler than average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the organization predicted 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and an ACE index of 55 units. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the United States or tracking through the Caribbean Sea was expected to be lower than average.
April 15, 2014 - Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) latest analysis predicts a strong hurricane landfall season for the United States in 2014 stating that at least 2 United States Hurricane landfalls are possible and a weak El Nino will not be influencing potential landfalls. Predictions are calling for 13 named Atlantic Basin storms and 6 hurricanes of which 2 could be major hurricanes.
May 15, 2014 - My personal prediction for the 2014 hurricane season is a repeat of last year's performance for the Atlantic basin. Last year we had 14 tropical cyclones of which 13 became named storms, 2 were hurricanes and none were major hurricanes. During 2014 I feel that El Niño will again be weaker than expected and thus storm numbers will be similar to last years with a variance of only ±1. Hurricane activity for the Atlantic will be on the quieter side. I don't know yet just how much quieter.
May 16, 2014 - The United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast for hurricane activity to be slightly below-average for this season. It predicted 10 named storms for the Atlantic basin with a 70% chance that the number would be between 7 and 13 and 6 hurricanes with a 70% chance that the number would be between 3 and 9. It also predicted an ACE index of 84 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 47 to 121.
May 22, 2014 - NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their outlook for the Atlantic season in which they are calling for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
August 07, 2014 - Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the likelihood for a below-normal season in today’s update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The update predicts a 70 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a five percent chance of an above-normal season. The probabilities in the initial outlook issued on May 22 were 50 percent, 40 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
The updated hurricane season outlook predicts a 70 percent chance of the following ranges: 7 to 12 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which 0 to 2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
August 08, 2014 - Now that we are getting into the typically more active part of the hurricane season I am also sensing that my early numbers, based on my feelings at the time, will need to be refined lower. Now I am picking up the sense of how things are playing out and it's interesting, I expect the total number of named storms to be lower than last years, but the number of actual hurricanes to be higher due to the amount of energy that is around this season. Taking a que from the Pacific side once a cyclone forms it has great potential for becoming a hurricane. My prediction therefore is for 8 to 10 named storms, of which 4 to 6 will be hurricanes and possibly 2 or 3 becoming major hurricanes. Unlike my insight to storms I am only basing these numbers on how I feel things will evolve. I haven't been given any great insight to actual numbers on the over all season. The total number of cyclones to develop this season will be lower than last year's, but from the ones that do form there will be a high percentage of hurricanes developing.