ATLANTIC & PACIFIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY & PREDICTIONS 2014
2014 Outlook and on-going predictions for hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins
May 05 - In the late afternoon I saw what looked like a large feather in the sky and it reminded me of a quilt pen. Later I saw swirling clouds and a circle in the centre of the sky. The feather is indicating that it's time to prepare and start taking notes and the ring around the swirling clouds suggests that hurricane activity is starting up for the season. The ring represents the graphs that the NHC issues.
May 15 - The outlook for the North Atlantic basin is for a below-average active season, much the same as it was in 2013. Once again the numbers I am calling for are 13-15 storms, 12-14 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes and 0-1 major hurricanes. El Niño is expected to be a little stronger this year but I sense that it will strengthen very slowly due to strong fluctuations in cold air masses to the north thus inhibiting growth over a good part of the hurricane season. El Niño may play a role in the latter part of the eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone season but will have little or no effect on the North Atlantic side.
May 18 - Can Panama be in the path of a hurricane? (Click on image below for Atlantic hurricanes) . Traditionally Panama does not get hit by hurricanes but can still experience heavy thunderstorms and rain during the rainy season. What about Pacific storms? Pacific storms tend to move away from Central America either out to sea or further up towards Mexico before making landfall. That being said, one rare exception was Hurricane Barbara last year. (Click on image below for map).
The first insight to dates relating to this year's hurricane season refers to a huge storm for Central America incorporating the dates of September 28 and October 2 which will bring heavy rainfall over several days.
Also of note, a small system is expected over the Atlantic on September 10. Later a huge system should form around September 26 in the middle of the Atlantic and is expected to go up the east coast. Further details will be published as they become available.
Atlantic Hurricanes Hurricane Barbara
May 22 - The first tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific basin formed today. I believe that Tropical Storm Amanda will become a major hurricane, but I don't know how strong the system will be when it turns back towards land.
May 24 - Further insight into events for this season include a system that will be moving up along the Pacific coast September 16 - 17 and in October, around the 16, there will be a system developing south of Cuba and will move up towards this Caribbean island. Further details will be posted here as time draws closer to dates listed on this site. I normally pick up more insight as energy begins to form in relation to the dates given ahead of time.
June 06 - From observations and insights given I came to realize that the theme for this year is Bad Girls of the Pacific. The eastern North Pacific basin is expected to be quite active this year and the female named storms will be the ones to really watch out for. Now this is nothing against women but just as last year's theme was Two's with many events being paired one way or another (remember Hurricane Ingrid & Hurricane Manuel?) so this year the female named storms will be the headliners of main events. Studies state that the general public pays less attention to female-named storms than to male-named ones. Less hope that this doesn't happen this season.
July 07 - A couple of more dates have been made known but not which side of the continent. Dates to look for some major activity include July 16 and for August, 6,7 and 8 with emphasis on the 8th.
July 19 - For some reason there seems to be a lot of turbulance picking up on July 23 and 24.
July 24 - Looking at the west coast of Africa I see that the genesis of Big Bertha is about to happen soon.
July 28 - NOAA has labelled an area southwest of the Cape Verde Islands as 93L, this is to become Hurricane Bertha.
July 31 - The dates of August 6,7 & 8 are shaping up to be important dates for activities everywhere. The biggest event will most likely be in regards to Halong (Jose) which will become a Major Hurricane or Super Typhoon before affecting the western part of the Pacific region. In the central basin of the Pacific Iselle may be impacting the Hawaiian islands. Finally, in the Atlantic basin Bertha may make her presence known as she sweeps by the maritime provinces. So we have a triple-header in store for these three dates. And one last note, you may realize that all three are female-named cyclones.
August 03 - From a dream I came to realize that an area is going to be hit by two cyclones and today I see that Iselle and Julio have their eyes set on the Hawaiian islands. Also after this coming weekend the next date to mark down for activity is August 16 and its pertaining to Pacific activity as well.
August 16 - You may all wonder what was the big deal about August 16 since nothing happened this day. Well that's just it, August 16 marks the end of this particular active phase of the 2014 tropical cyclone seaon. From July 01 through August 03 we had thirteen cyclones form in the Atlantic and Pacific combined. Of these thirteen, twelve became named storms, nine became hurricanes or typhoons of which three became major hurricanes or super typhoons. On August 16 at 0000 hrs Japan Standard Time Julio dissipated marking the end of this phase.
August 17 - Now a new date has been given. It is August 26. Because nothing else is being associated with this date yet you have to keep an eye open for activities in the Atlantic as well as the Pacific.
September 01 - I mentioned August 26 as a date to bare in mind. It turns out that Cristobal became a hurricane on that date. Under Pacific Predictions I mentioned that this current phase will be less active than the previous one. The previous cycle's numbers are stated above and in the cycle that is just about complete from August 12 to September 03 we had five cyclones in total, of which four became hurricanes. Five storms is significantly less than twelve but the fact that four were all hurricanes indicates that the amount of energy being put out this season is quite high. Now we have September beginninig and I have already stated above what to look out for in this month.
One other late observation and note to be made here. I stated earlier that the Pacific female-named cyclones will be the stronger ones for this season. I've also noticed in my observations that the storms sometimes appear to be dancing their way through. If you're dancing then it's good to have a dancing partner. So it seems to me that the male-named storms of the Atlantic could be the dancing partners to the female-named storms of the Pacific. That means that the male cyclones of the Atlantic will be the stronger systems in that basin just as the female cyclones are the stronger ones on the Pacific side. I had this idea running through my mind for a few days now so I thought I may as well put it out there for others to see.
To see how the cyclones in both basins are stacking up in regards to their strengths click on the icon below.
